Crypto Report Card: Scoring 2025’s Predictions Before Looking Ahead to 2026
VeradiVerdict - Issue #342
Before I share my 2026 predictions, I want to reflect on the eight I made for 2025 to check their accuracy. You can read my reasoning for these predictions in more detail at VeradiVerdict.
I awarded myself these subjective self-scores for my eight predictions from 2025, ranking each of my predictions from a 1 (least accurate) through a 5 (most accurate). Results broke down pretty evenly across the rating range with no 1s and two of each of these: 2, 3, 4, and 5.
#1 RWA Growth
Prediction: By year-end, RWAs (excluding stablecoins) will account for 30% of onchain TVL.
Score: 3 out of 5
When I made this prediction, RWAs excluding stablecoins represented 15% of onchain TVL at $13.7 billion. As of December 15, 2025, the amount reached ~16% of TVL at $16.6 billion out of a DeFi TVL of $118 billion. So, while the RWA sector has expanded, it remained at a relatively consistent share of onchain TVL. Top sectors include the following:
Tokenized Treasures: $8.7 billion
Tokenized Commodities:$3.2 billion
Tokenized Private Credit: $2.4 billion
Tokenized Institutional Funds: $2.4 billion
#2 Bitcoin-Fi
Prediction: 1% of Bitcoins will participate in Bitcoin-Fi.
Score: 4 out of 5
In this case, I actually underestimated the participation percentage. The total percentage of Bitcoin-Fi is 1.4% of the 19.9 million supply as of December 13. Bitcoin’s early stage liquid staking market is currently at $2.5 billion. Projects have included Babylon, Lombard, Arch Network and Mezo.
Another use case is lending and borrowing with more than $1 billion in BTC-backed loans taking place in 2025 by Ledn, a billion-plus by Unchained, and a billion-plus by Coinbase. Key developments included the Babylon-Aave partnership, tBTC credit markets, and stacks ecosystem powered by ALEX Lab, Zest Protocol, and other applications.
#3 Fintechs as Crypto Gateways
Prediction: Fintechs will grow in prevalence and may perhaps rival smaller centralized exchanges in crypto holdings.
Score: 5 out of 5
During 2025, fintechs first rivaled smaller centralized exchanges and then went on to surpass them. Robinhood, at $51 billion according to company reporting, would already exceed the holdings of mid-tier CEXs with Bitfinex at $20.7 billion still standing as a smaller exchange. This shift reflects fintechs’ structural advantages in user acquisition, regulatory positioning, and integrated financial services.
#4 Unichain L2 Dominance
Prediction: Unichain becomes the leading L2 by transaction volume.
Score: 2 out of 5
When looking at Stage 1 L2s in December, Unichain ranks sixth with $260.14 million in total value secured. Above Unichain was:
Ink with $396.63 million TVS
#5: NFT Application-Specific Resurgence
Prediction: Flexibility is what brings NFTs power. The use-cases will only increase.
Score: 2 out of 5
Use case types did grow across sectors in 2025, but NFTs as a whole have faced adoption headwinds. Once used largely for speculative art, practical applications of NFTs now include:
Gaming ($0.54 trillion market) like World of Dyplans, Pixels, and Seraph
Ticketing ($1.1 billion market) like OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem, GUTS Tickets, and SeatlabNFT
Decentralized identity systems like Ethereum Name Service, Lens Protocol, and Galxe
Engagement depth has increased with unique active wallets at 2.1 million in Q3 with traders having an average of 8.4 NFTs per wallet compared to 4.2 in Q1.
#6 Restaking Launches
Prediction: Restaking protocols like Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak will finally launch their tokens, which would pay operators from AVS and slashing.
Score: 3 out of 5
Restaking in the intended instantiation hasn’t seen as much adoption as intended and, instead, we’ve seen prominent restaking protocols expand into adjacent businesses.
EigenLayer/EigenCloud did activate its slashing mechanism on April 17, 2025 and is fully operational. In the fall, they also launched EigenAI and EigenCompute on mainnet alpha to expand beyond infrastructure into AI/compute workloads. Symbiotic, however, expanded to insurance, and most restaking protocols have not launched because of a TVL decrease.
#7 zkTLS Trend
Prediction: zkTLS will bring offchain data on-chain, powering new use cases for DeFi / Fintech and data verification in various industries and use cases.
Score: 5 out of 5
zkTLS already has multiple live product implementations, including these launches:
TransCrypts launched in 2024 for income and identity verification.
Accountable in May 2025 for verification of financial data between counterparties.
Earnifi launched in 2025 for improved EWA underwriting.
DaisyApp launched in 2025 for verifiable influencer marketing and attribution.
3Jane in private beta now for proof of assets and identity to underwrite uncollateralised loan.
EarnOS for verified user acquisition and attribution.
We’re seeing zkTLS implemented in areas of verification.
#8 Encouraging Regulatory Environment
Prediction: We’ll see a winding down of SEC lawsuits, clear definitions of crypto as a particular asset class, and tax considerations.
Score: 5 out of 5
This three-part prediction came with the following levels of accuracy.
First, major SEC lawsuits did wind down in 2025, including ones against Ripple, Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and more. All but Ripple concluded without financial penalties with Ripple’s coming with a $125 million penalty.
The year 2025 saw significant regulatory progress but did not provide clear definitions of crypto as a particular asset class. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act passed through the House in July and is now under consideration by the Senate. This Act would give the CFTC jurisdiction over decentralized tokens and the SEC jurisdiction over centralized/investment tokens. Meanwhile, the SEC released a preliminary, nonbinding token taxonomy in November.
Part three of the prediction, clear tax guidance, came close but didn’t happen. Although foundational clarity on digital assets lays out how they are property, subject to capital gains and ordinary income rules, ambiguities still exist in areas like DeFi broker reporting and non-custodial transactions. Areas of progress include phased implementations of mandatory broker reporting that became effective this year; staking safe harbors for publicly traded trusts/ETFs in November; and ongoing stablecoin regulatory development, post-GENIUS Act.
Moreover, in 2025 the U.S. administration named a crypto czar, created a bitcoin strategic stockpile, formed a digital asset working group, and selected a new SEC chair that embraces innovation.
Nine Predictions for 2026
#1 Real-World Assets (RWA) Takes-Off
As of December 15, 2025, the amount reached ~14% of TVL at $16.6 billion out of a DeFi TVL of $118 billion.
Prediction:
Treasuries and private credit could at least double.
Tokenized stocks and equities could grow even faster when the anticipated “Innovation Exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” debuts.
One surprise sector (carbon credits, mineral rights, or energy projects) will catch fire. This sector will likely be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution, and a lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help resolve.
#2 AI Revolutionizes On-Chain Security
AI security and blockchain development tools are getting scary good. Real-time fraud detection, 95% accurate transaction Bitcoin labeling, and instant smart-contract debugging are here, detecting millions in blockchain vulnerabilities.
Prediction: In 2026, picture bigger shifts toward on-chain intelligence with deterministic, verifiable rules taking over smart contract-based governance. The application will scan code in near real-time, spot logic bugs and exploits instantly, and give immediate debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative onchain security firm that will 100x the safety game.
#3 Prediction Markets Are Acquisition Targets
With $28 billion traded in 2025’s first ten months, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. We hit an ATH the week of October 20 at $2.3 billion.
Prediction: A buyout in the industry of more than $1 billion, one that will not involve Polymarket or Kalshi. Winning platforms will build under-the-hood liquidity rails with baked-in market-discovery intelligence that points out where money is hiding and why. Forget shiny new buttons. It’s all about effortlessly giving users superpowers: instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, and predictive order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream, partnering with media for real-time odds distribution. Newer entries like NoVig, focused on sports, will expand their presence vertically, and new startups will emerge in APAC, as that is a region to watch.
#4 AI Becomes Your Personal Crypto Co-Pilot
Consumer AI platform usage will surge as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet tailored expectations. Seamless integration makes advanced AI feel effortless, shifting usage from clunky to instant
Prediction: Platforms like Surf.ai will engage people from crypto-curious individuals to active traders in 2026 via intuitive advanced AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe that sophisticated technology and accessible design positions Surf as the go-to crypto research tool, delivering instant, on-chain-backed market insights 4× faster than generic options with other platforms of this type also emerging.
#5 Bank Titans Gear Up: G7-Pegged Stablecoin Looms
Ten major banks are in the early stages of exploring a consortium stablecoin issuance pegged to G7 currencies. The financial institutions are determining whether an industry-wide stablecoin would likely provide people and institutions with the benefits of digital currencies in compliant, risk-managed ways. Meanwhile, a group of ten European banks are investigating the issuance of a euro-pegged stablecoin.
Prediction: A consortium of major banks will release their own stablecoin (whether these pilot projects come to fruition in 2026 or a different consortium does).
#6 Privacy, Payments, Perpetuals: The Institutional Trio
Privacy tech is booming in institutional usage with the transparency-secrecy combination of Zama, Canton, and other protocols although retail usage isn’t finding traction or scalability. Stablecoins sit at $310 billion today, more than doubling market cap since 2023, expanding for 25 months in a row. Perpetual swap contracts already make up ~78% of crypto derivative volume, and the gap keeps growing between perps and spot options.
Prediction: For privacy, the gap between institutional and retail will widen in 2026. Stablecoins will have a path to $2 trillion+ long-term, hitting at least $500 billion next year, and the momentum for perpetuals will continue in 2026.
#7 The Institutional Macro View
As of December 15, 17.867% of BTC holdings now rest in the hands of publicly traded and private companies, ETFs, and countries.
Prediction: 2026 won’t be about hype or memes. It will be about consolidation, real compliance, and institutional money being driven by public market liquidity. Crypto will integrate in mainstream platforms, upgrade financial rails, and challenge current incumbents.
#8 The Biggest Crypto IPO Year Ever
2025 already had 335 U.S. IPOs, overall, an increase of 55% from 2024; many of those were crypto-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-native ones like Circle Internet Group with a launch date of May 27, 2025 and crypto-inclusive ones like SPACS; Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, for example, launched on December 2, 2025.
Prediction: 2026 will be an even bigger year for digital asset public listings. Coinbase says that 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets in 2026 with some eyeing 5%+ of their entire portfolio. Morpho serves as an example protocol with its $8.6 billion TVL in November 2025.
#9 Digital Asset Treasury Consolidation Accelerates
Back in 2021, fewer than ten public companies owned Bitcoin. Fast-forwarding to mid-December, 151 public companies own $95 billion with the number rising to 164 and $148 billion when including governments.
Predictions: 2026 will see brutal pruning. In each major asset class, only one or two players will dominate. Everyone else gets acquired or left behind except for a longer-tail token winner going along for the ride. It’s going global, too. Japan’s Metaplanet is already aggressive, so the U.S. no longer owns the trend as the global treasury landscape diversifies.
Paul Veradittakit
Important Disclosures – This blog post is made available by Pantera Capital Partners LP and its affiliates (“Pantera”) for informational and educational purposes only. This blog post solely reflects the opinion of Paul Veradittakit, and does not reflect Pantera’s opinions. It does not contain all information pertinent to an investment decision. Nothing in this blog post constitutes an investment recommendation or an offer of investment advisory services. This blog post cannot be relied upon in making an investment decision. Nothing contained herein constitutes an offer to sell, or a solicitation to buy, any securities. This blog post contains information believed to be reliable, and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but Pantera makes no representation or warranty (express or implied) of any nature, nor accepts any responsibility or liability of any kind, with respect to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or reasonableness of the information or opinions contained herein. Forward-looking statements (including predictions) should not be relied upon. There is no guarantee that investments in any instrument or type of instrument described herein will be profitable – all investments carry the inherent risk of total loss. Analyses and opinions contained herein (including market commentary, statements or forecasts) reflect the author’s judgment as of the date this blog post was published, and may contain elements of subjectivity (including certain assumptions) or be based on incomplete information. There is no duty or obligation to update the contents of this blog post. This blog post is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for accounting, legal, or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Pantera and its principals have made investments in some of the instruments discussed in this communication and may in the future make additional investments or trading decisions in connection with such instruments without further notice.
Predictions are not guarantees of future outcomes. This blog post aims to provide market commentary. The opinions expressed are those of the author as of the date of publication and incorporate subjective judgments.
All registered or unregistered service marks, trademarks and trade names referred to in this blog are the property of their respective owners, and Pantera’s use herein does not imply an affiliation with or endorsement by the owners of these service marks, trademarks and trade names
Business
Pantera, Coinbase Pile on as Crypto Startups Raise $176 million This Week
Pantera Capital, Coinbase Ventures, and DCG led the way in investments into crypto startups this week, bringing this year’s total investment to more than $25 billion. That’s more than double last year’s investments.
YouTube is Now Paying Creators in Crypto, Offering a $100B Path to Finally Exit Banks
The company now includes PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin as an option in the United States. This payout choice routes users directly through PayPal’s infrastructure without YouTube needing to custody crypto or transfer it directly.
Visa Expands Crypto Business with New Stablecoin Advisory Division
This division will work with banks, fintechs, enterprises, and merchants to analyze market opportunities, device market strategies, and build solutions based on stablecoins.
Regulation
US Regulator Grants Crypto Firms Initial Approval to Launch Trust Banks
The OOC conditionally approved national bank charters from Circle and Ripple and conditionally approved BitGo, Paxos, and Fidelity Digital Assets applications to convert state trust bank chapters into national ones.
SEC Approves DTCC Plan to Tokenize Stocks, Bonds & Treasuries
The SEC signed off on a plan from the DTCC to tokenize stocks, corporate bonds, and U.S. Treasuries. Rather than creating wrapped assets, they will issue onchain representations of securities in their depository.
House Passes INVEST Act to Ease Investment Standards and Boost Capital in Markets
Passing in the House 302 to 123, this Act, if it becomes law, would allow investors to become accredited through an SEC-approved exam rather than having only wealth or income determining who can be an accredited investor.
New Products and Deals
RedotPay Raises $107 Million in Series B
Pantera invests in RedotPay, which focuses on making digital finance accessible, secure, and efficient for everyone, moving beyond traditional fintech to create a fast, simpler, and more reliable users globally.
Solana Confirms Officially XRP Is Coming to Solana
On December 11, Solana confirmed an upcoming bridge between Hex Trust and LayerZero at the Breakpoint global conference along with the issuance of Wrapped XRP on Solana’s blockchain. Hex Trust will launch a 1:1, fully backed wrapped asset wXRP.
IBM Acquires Confluent for $11B and Builds a Unified Stack for AI and Blockchain
Rather than building baseline infrastructure, IBM is focusing on a continuously processing layer of events, transactions, and signals to facilitate the ability of blockchains, tokenized assets, and intelligent systems to operate in near real-time.
This Week at Pantera
Pantera Podcast: State of Crypto VC: $34B Raised, 50% Fewer Deals
I’m excited to share our inaugural episode of Pantera’s Podcast, Stateful. Host Mason Nystrom sits down with me and Franklin Bi, General Partner to discuss the catalysts reshaping crypto venture. Full episode here.
Investing in Surf
Pantera led a $15 million round for Surf.ai, the ChatGpt for crypto. Surf is the first AI model built for crypto markets and extensively used by researchers, traders and users looking to have their crypto questions answered. Top platform questions range from price actions to project fundamentals. Check it out here.
Pantera at Breakpoint Conference
At this global gathering General Partner Cosmo Jiang and Junior Partner Mason Nystrom discussed DATs, L1s, and token buybacks. Next year’s Breakpoint will be held in London, England.
Let’s Meet Up
New York City, December 17th-19th
New York City, January 29th-30th
Hong Kong, Consensus, February 10th-11th
New York City, February 26th
Hi, I’m Paul Veradittakit, a Managing Partner at Pantera Capital, one of the oldest and largest institutional investors focused on investing in blockchain companies and cryptocurrencies. I’ve been in the industry since 2014, and the firm invests in equity, early-stage token projects, and liquid cryptocurrencies on exchanges. I focus on early-stage investments and share my thoughts on what’s going on in the industry in this weekly newsletter.
If you have any projects that need funding, feel free to DM me on twitter.
Good flag on RWAs this year. I've been thinking about RWAs a lot for this big idea I'm kicking around for 2026, and there's some stuff I didn't know about in there